There has been some chatter about winter making a comeback at some point during the month of March and I can see a few of the models trying to go towards that. But if the MJO moves into phase 4, forget it, winter is truly over. Phase 4 is a very mild phase with a lot of ridging in the eastern half of the United States. This will either bottle up the arctic air north into Canada or set the trough in the west. Either way it’s not a good sign for snow lovers in the east. Keep in mind we’re also fighting mother nature at this stage too. The angle of the sun is getting higher with every passing day, the amount of daylight is getting longer with every passing day and the oceans are slowly but surely starting to moderate. Don’t get me wrong, you can get some really good snowstorms in March. History has shown that. But not when the MJO is in phase 4. So if do in fact see phase 4, winter is truly over.
The image above is a look at phase 4 temperature anomalies across the lower 48 during the month of March. That’s a huge orange paint ball blast in the east! Can’t get a snowstorm that way!
